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Roulette This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. In December of 1999 I wrote the story below about Fred Marino suing Discover Card. In the wake of that lawsuit, last week Discover Card signed an agreement in California Superior court it will not operate merchant accounts with online casino companies that may do business with California residents. Since it is hard to tell if the customer is from California this may mean that players will not be able finance their online gambling with a Discover Card. Calculates interactively the probabilities and expectations for each possible card-distribution in the shoe Player losing ties
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When blackjack was first introduced in the United States it wasn't very popular, so gambling houses tried offering various bonus payouts to get the players to the tables. One such bonus was a 10-to-1 payout if the player's hand consisted of the ace of spades and a black Jack (either the Jack of clubs or the Jack of spades). This hand was called a "blackjack" and the name stuck even though the bonus payout was soon abolished. Non-examples Bodog Casino just launched their play-in-browser games, which are 100% Mac compatible. As I write this I just got done playing blackjack there for $25/hand. It works in free-play mode too, if you want to play with fake money. References Interactive strategy tables for each possible card-distribution in the shoe can be generated using a JavaScript based blackjack calculator. Baccarat Banque The banker has now to decide whether he himself will draw a card, being guided in his decision partly by the cards he already holds, partly by the card (if any) drawn by the punter, and partly by what he may know or guess of the latter's mode of play. If he has hesitated over his decision, the banker may be pretty certain (unless such hesitation was an intentional blind) that his original point was five, and as the third card (if any) is exposed, his present point becomes equally a matter of certainty. The banker, having drawn or not drawn, as he may elect, exposes his cards, and receives or pays as the case may be. Ties neither win nor lose, but the stakes remain for the next hand. Of course, a player may lose both his original bet and his Insurance bet. Ken Uston on Blackjack, Ken Uston, 1986, ISBN 0818404116
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